The Conejo Valley market is cooling, but it's not crashing. May 2026 data shows median single-family prices up 2.8% year-over-year (vs. 8%-12% in 2022), inventory expanded to 3.1 months (vs. 1.2 months in 2022), and average days on market at 22 (vs. 14 in 2022). All three numbers point to a market that's moved from frenzy to balanced. Sellers can still sell well; buyers have actual negotiation room. Both sides should adjust expectations.
The data: cooling vs. crashing
Cooling means slower price growth, more inventory, longer market times - but still positive net dynamics. Crashing would mean declining prices, ballooning inventory, distressed sellers, and rising default rates. The Conejo Valley shows clear cooling signs and zero crash signals as of May 2026.
Year-over-year median price growth has slowed from double-digit highs to 2%-4% across most cities. That's healthier and more sustainable than the 2021-2022 surge. Inventory months have expanded from 1.2 to 3.1 - normal-market territory.
Days on market roughly doubled from the 2022 lows but remain reasonable. Sale-to-list price ratio is still above 99% in most Conejo cities - sellers are still getting close to ask, just not multiple offers above ask the way they were in 2022.
Cooling indicators by city
City-by-city snapshot of cooling indicators in May 2026, compared to May 2022 (peak frenzy).
| City | May 2022 DOM | May 2026 DOM | May 2026 YoY Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thousand Oaks | 12 | 22 | +2.8% |
| Westlake Village | 15 | 27 | +1.9% |
| Newbury Park | 13 | 24 | +3.1% |
| Agoura Hills | 14 | 25 | +2.4% |
| Oak Park | 13 | 23 | +2.9% |
| Calabasas | 18 | 31 | +1.6% |
| Hidden Hills | 30 | 55 | +0.4% |
What's driving the cooling
Higher mortgage rates (6.2%-6.8% vs. sub-3% in 2021) are the primary driver. Buyer purchasing power dropped 25%-35% from the rate spike, and that has cooled multiple-offer activity meaningfully.
Affordability fatigue matters too. Median prices rose 30%-50% from 2019 to 2022. Even with cooling, they're not far below those peaks. Buyer pool depth has shrunk as marginal buyers got priced out or moved to lower-cost areas.
Inventory expansion has helped too. Sellers who held in 2022-2023 hoping for return-to-peak have started listing. New construction in select Conejo tracts added supply. The combination has rebalanced the market without forcing distressed sales.
What's NOT happening (and why a crash is unlikely)
No widespread distressed selling. Mortgage defaults and foreclosure activity in Ventura County remain near multi-decade lows. Most owners locked sub-5% rates 2020-2022 and have strong equity positions - they can hold rather than sell at distress.
No major employer collapse. Amgen, Bank of America, Baxter, and other major Conejo employers have stable or growing headcount. Without job losses, foreclosure pressure stays low.
No subprime equivalent. Lending standards since 2008 have been substantially tighter than the pre-crash era. Most Conejo Valley buyers actually qualify for the loans they have. That's structural protection against a 2008-style downturn.
What cooling means for sellers and buyers
Sellers: list at realistic prices, prepare homes well, and expect 18-30 days on market rather than 3-7. You'll likely get one or two offers near asking, not five over asking. That's normal. The market is still favorable for prepared sellers; expectations just need to reset to normal.
Buyers: actual negotiation room exists again. Inspection contingencies are normal. Repair credits are negotiable. You can ask for closing cost concessions. Above $1.5M in most Conejo cities you have real leverage. Use it.
Both sides: this is closer to a normal market than either the frenzy of 2021 or the freeze of 2022. Strategy still matters - it's just normal-market strategy, not crisis-market strategy.
Forecast: what happens next
Most likely path: continued slow cooling through 2026 into early 2027, with prices roughly flat to slightly positive (0%-3% annual growth). Inventory stays in the 3-4 month range. Rates likely move slowly lower over 18-24 months but probably stay above 5%.
Risk factors that could shift the path: major employer disruption (unlikely but worth watching), national recession with rising unemployment, or a California-specific event (wildfire, earthquake, insurance crisis) that destabilizes the regional housing market.
Bottom line: Conejo Valley sits in a normal-market cooling, not a crash. Plan accordingly - this is what real estate looks like outside the unusual 2020-2022 window. Most of housing history looks more like 2026 than 2021.
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