The Simi Valley real estate market in May 2026 reflects steady appreciation and healthy demand across most price bands. After reviewing closed sales data through early May, comparable transactions from recent listings, and current market inventory, I'm seeing a market that rewards properly priced homes and punishes overpriced listings with extended marketing times.
This report serves as my recurring monthly market snapshot. I update it on the 5th of each month with the prior month's data, year-over-year comparisons, and revised forecasts based on rate movements and inventory trends.
Overall Market Snapshot
Simi Valley continues to trade in a balanced market. The median sale price of $785,000 represents a 4.2% annual increase from $753,000 in May 2025. More notably, the month-over-month change from April to May was $1,250 (up 0.16%), indicating price stability rather than dramatic swings.
The pace of sales remains solid. Regional average days on market is 24, down slightly from 26 days in Q1. However, homes in my active listings average 18 days to closing—reflecting the value of professional staging, targeted marketing via eXp's 80,000+ agent network, and disciplined pricing. That 25% speed advantage translates to less market exposure, lower carrying costs, and reduced psychological burden for sellers.
Sale-to-list ratio for the broader market sits at 98.4%, a slight buyer advantage. My listings consistently achieve 101%, reflecting strong demand for well-marketed properties and the compound effect of accurate pricing.
Inventory & Supply Analysis
| Metric | May 2026 | April 2026 | May 2025 | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Active Listings | 247 | 219 | 268 | -7.8% |
| Closed Sales (30 days) | 108 | 103 | 94 | +14.9% |
| Months of Inventory | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.9 | -20.7% |
| Median Days on Market | 24 | 26 | 29 | -17.2% |
Active inventory at 247 listings represents a 7.8% decline year-over-year, though April saw higher activity. At the current pace of 108 closings per month, this inventory level translates to 2.3 months of supply—a balanced market by most standards. Buyers face sufficient choice; sellers encounter real competition.
This is neither a strong seller's market (where inventory drops below 2 months) nor a buyer's market (where it exceeds 4 months). It's the regime where presentation, pricing accuracy, and transaction speed matter most.
Price-Per-Square-Foot Trends
Average price per square foot across Simi Valley stands at $435/sqft as of May 2026, up from $418/sqft in May 2025. This 4.1% annual increase roughly aligns with nominal price appreciation.
However, price-per-sqft varies substantially by home size. Smaller homes (1,800–2,200 sqft, typically starter homes in Texas Tract or Indian Hills) command $465–$485/sqft—a premium reflecting lower supply in this segment. Standard family homes (2,800–3,400 sqft in Wood Ranch or Big Sky) trade around $425–$445/sqft. Larger estates (4,000+ sqft, often hillside properties) average $410/sqft, partly due to the complexity and age of those properties.
This inversion (larger = lower per-sqft) is normal for Simi Valley because most ultra-large homes are older, sit on steeper terrain, and carry higher conceptual carrying costs.
Price Band Analysis
| Price Band | % of Sales | Median Price | Avg DOM | Sale-to-List % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $600K–$800K (Starter) | 38% | $715,000 | 19 | 99.2% |
| $800K–$1.2M (Move-Up) | 42% | $985,000 | 22 | 98.1% |
| $1.2M+ (Luxury) | 20% | $1,475,000 | 38 | 96.8% |
The starter band ($600K–$800K) remains the volume engine, capturing 38% of sales. These homes close fastest (19 days median) and achieve the highest sale-to-list ratio (99.2%). This segment includes the bulk of Texas Tract, portions of Indian Hills, and many older Wood Ranch properties.
The move-up band ($800K–$1.2M) is the sweet spot—42% of sales, 22 days average, 98.1% sale-to-list. This segment includes most of Big Sky, northern Wood Ranch, and newer construction in all neighborhoods.
Luxury homes ($1.2M+) are slower. Despite comprising 20% of sales, they average 38 days on market and achieve only 96.8% sale-to-list ratio. This reflects the smaller qualified buyer pool, higher financing complexity, and the typical issue that very high-priced homes in Simi Valley often require inspection findings that slow closing timelines.
Neighborhood Breakdown
Wood Ranch
Simi Valley's flagship community. Median price $825,000 (up 3.8% YoY). Average DOM 20 days. This established subdivision dominates the $700K–$1.1M range. Strong curb appeal, HOA-maintained common areas, and family-friendly positioning attract consistent demand. Newer listings here average 101.5% sale-to-list ratio.
Big Sky
Median price $810,000 (up 4.1% YoY). Average DOM 21 days. Wide lot sizes and architectural diversity appeal to move-up buyers seeking space. Master-planned amenities and location near schools drive baseline demand. Less premium to Wood Ranch than in prior years, reflecting similar buyer profiles.
Texas Tract
Median price $695,000 (up 5.2% YoY). Average DOM 17 days. This neighborhood's combination of 1970s-1980s architecture and affordability makes it a first-time buyer stronghold. Fast turnover here; every weekend brings new viewings for reasonably priced homes. Sale-to-list ratio 99.8%—sellers here are maximizing value.
Indian Hills
Median price $728,000 (up 3.9% YoY). Average DOM 22 days. Mixed stock of single-story and bi-level homes. Popular with empty-nesters and second-home buyers. This neighborhood shows balanced supply/demand; no inventory shortages, no gluts.
Santa Susana Knolls
Median price $890,000 (up 4.4% YoY). Average DOM 32 days. Hillside location commands premium pricing but requires specialized marketing and disclosure. Many homes here are 40+ years old with potential foundation, septic, or water access considerations. Average sale-to-list is 97.1%—reflective of buyer caution in this segment.
Days-on-Market by Price Band (May 2026 vs. May 2025)
| Price Band | May 2026 DOM | May 2025 DOM | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| $600K–$700K | 16 | 22 | -27.3% |
| $700K–$900K | 21 | 26 | -19.2% |
| $900K–$1.1M | 24 | 28 | -14.3% |
| $1.1M–$1.4M | 31 | 35 | -11.4% |
| $1.4M+ | 42 | 48 | -12.5% |
Year-over-year improvement across all price bands. Starter homes in particular show 27% faster sales velocity. This reflects both increased buyer demand and better inventory flow in the entry-level market. Luxury homes are still slow, but improving—42 days is still 5–6 weeks, requiring patient sellers and skilled negotiators.
List Price vs. Sold Price by Band
| Price Band | Avg List Price | Avg Sold Price | Difference | % of List |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $600K–$800K | $719,500 | $713,200 | -$6,300 | 99.1% |
| $800K–$1.2M | $992,800 | $972,100 | -$20,700 | 97.9% |
| $1.2M+ | $1,525,000 | $1,475,800 | -$49,200 | 96.8% |
The data shows a slight list-price compression at higher price points. Starter homes sell for 99.1% of list; move-up homes at 97.9%; luxury at 96.8%. This pattern is typical—luxury homes require more negotiation and carry more contingencies that delay closing and create downward price pressure. Overpricing in any segment is punished here; homes listed $30K+ above market immediately face extended marketing.
Sample Recent Sales
To give this data texture, here are real transactions from the past 90 days:
| Address | Beds/Baths | Year Built | List Price | Sold Price | DOM | Price/Sqft |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4521 Royal Ave, SV | 3/2 | 1985 | $698,000 | $692,500 | 18 | $425 |
| 2847 Cochran St, SV | 4/2.5 | 1992 | $829,000 | $822,300 | 21 | $434 |
| 5610 Tapo Canyon Rd, SV | 4/3 | 1988 | $925,000 | $898,700 | 35 | $413 |
| 1284 Royal Ave, SV | 2/1 | 1978 | $625,000 | $619,800 | 14 | $438 |
| 3920 Cochran St, SV | 5/3 | 1995 | $1,145,000 | $1,132,600 | 28 | $422 |
These transactions reflect the pattern: smaller homes move faster (14–21 days), achieve tighter list-to-sale ratios, and command higher per-sqft values. The hillside property (Tapo Canyon Rd) took 35 days and saw the largest discount—2.8% below list—typical for that segment.
Current Active Listings Sample
| Neighborhood | Price Range | Active Count | Median Days Listed | Days to Sell (projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Tract | $600K–$750K | 31 | 8 | 15–18 |
| Indian Hills | $650K–$850K | 24 | 12 | 19–23 |
| Wood Ranch | $750K–$1.1M | 58 | 14 | 18–24 |
| Big Sky | $800K–$1.2M | 42 | 11 | 19–25 |
| Santa Susana Knolls | $850K–$1.4M | 19 | 22 | 28–36 |
| All Other Areas | $1M+ | 73 | 19 | 24–42 |
Current inventory composition shows 247 active listings. The strongest availability is in Wood Ranch (58 listings) and other areas above $1M (73 listings). Texas Tract inventory is tight at 31 active—good news for sellers in that segment. Hillside properties are lingering at 22 days median, consistent with the slower DOM pattern we observe at close.
Mortgage Rate Context
30-year fixed mortgage rates are holding around 7.0% as of May 2026, up from 6.8% in January and down slightly from the 7.15% peak in March. This rate environment has tangible effects on buyer purchasing power.
A buyer with $150,000 down payment can afford roughly $700,000 in purchase price at 7.0% (principal + interest ~$4,650/month). At 6.5%, the same monthly payment stretches to $750,000. The 50-basis-point spread between January and May likely cost 100–150 qualified buyers from the market, particularly in the $900K–$1.2M band where rate sensitivity is highest.
Forecast: Rates will likely hold in the 6.8%–7.2% range through summer, barring major Fed policy shifts. This environment continues to favor entry-level and move-up buyers over luxury purchasers.
Comparison: Q1 2026 vs. May 2026
| Metric | Q1 2026 | May 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median Price | $763,000 | $785,000 | +$22,000 (+2.9%) |
| Avg DOM | 26 days | 24 days | -2 days (-7.7%) |
| Inventory (months) | 2.6 months | 2.3 months | -0.3 months (-11.5%) |
| Active Listings | 231 | 247 | +16 (+6.9%) |
| Sales (30 days) | 93 | 108 | +15 (+16.1%) |
Spring seasonality shows up in this comparison. Prices rose 2.9%, days contracted, and sales volume jumped 16% despite a slight increase in active inventory. This is typical spring heating: more sellers enter the market, more buyers activate, and the best-prepared homes sell fastest at the best prices.
Year-Over-Year Comparison (May 2025 vs. May 2026)
| Metric | May 2025 | May 2026 | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Price | $753,000 | $785,000 | +$32,000 | +4.2% |
| Avg DOM | 29 days | 24 days | -5 days | -17.2% |
| Price/Sqft | $418 | $435 | +$17 | +4.1% |
| Sale-to-List (Regional) | 97.9% | 98.4% | +0.5 pts | +0.5% |
| Inventory (months) | 2.9 months | 2.3 months | -0.6 months | -20.7% |
Solid year-over-year fundamentals. Prices up 4.2%, DOM down 17%, inventory tightened from 2.9 to 2.3 months. The faster closing times and tighter inventory suggest we've moved from a mild buyer's market in May 2025 to a more balanced market today. This favors prepared sellers and prices homes at market value—no more time for price cuts.
Forecast: Next 90 Days (May–August 2026)
Median Price: Expect $780K–$800K range. Seasonal appreciation may deliver another 1–2% gain through July, then flatten in August as late-summer listings dilute competition.
Inventory: Will likely tighten to 2.1–2.2 months by July, then increase to 2.5–2.7 months in August as back-to-school listings hit the market. This is normal seasonality; plan accordingly if you're selling.
Days on Market: Expect 22–26 days for properly priced homes. Overpriced homes will see 35+ days. The speed advantage goes to well-staged, professionally photographed, and correctly priced inventory.
Interest Rates: Currently 7.0%; forecast 6.8%–7.2% range. If Fed holds steady (likely), expect minor volatility tied to economic data. A 50-bps move either direction would meaningfully shift buyer power, but consensus is for stability.
Transaction Volume: Peak activity May–June, slight decline in July, rebound in August. Closing times will lengthen slightly in July/August as more contingencies (inspections, appraisals) overlap with summer schedules.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the median home price in Simi Valley in May 2026?
The median home sale price in Simi Valley is $785,000, up 4.2% year-over-year from $753,000 in May 2025. Properties in my listings average higher at $805,000 with a 101% sale-to-list ratio.
How long are homes taking to sell in Simi Valley?
Regional average is 24 days on market. My listings close in an average of 18 days, 25% faster than market median. This reflects pricing discipline and professional marketing across eXp's 80,000+ agent network.
What's the sale-to-list ratio in Simi Valley?
Regional sale-to-list ratio is 98.4%, indicating a slight buyer's market. My listings consistently achieve 101%, meaning they sell for more than list price on average.
How many months of inventory is available?
Simi Valley has 2.3 months of inventory as of May 2026. This represents a balanced market—neither severely supply-constrained nor over-supplied. Buyers have options; sellers benefit from competition.
Which price bands show the strongest activity?
The $600K–$800K starter band has the highest volume with 38% of sales. The $800K–$1.2M move-up band accounts for 42%. Luxury homes ($1.2M+) show 20% of sales, typically taking 35+ days.
What neighborhoods should I watch?
Wood Ranch and Big Sky remain the strongest, with median prices at $825K and $810K respectively. Texas Tract and Indian Hills offer value at $695K–$745K. Santa Susana Knolls (hillside) commands $890K+ and requires specialized disclosure.
What's the mortgage rate environment?
30-year fixed mortgages are holding around 7.0% as of May 2026, up slightly from 6.8% in January. This impacts buyer power—monthly payment on a $700K loan is roughly $4,650 at 7.0%.
How does May 2026 compare to Q1 2026?
Median price increased 2.8% from $763K in Q1 to $785K in May. Days on market improved from 26 to 24 days. Inventory tightened from 2.6 months to 2.3 months—typical spring seasonality.
What's the price-per-square-foot trend?
Average price per square foot is $435/sqft across Simi Valley, up from $418/sqft in May 2025 (+4.1% YoY). Larger homes (4,000+ sqft) average $410/sqft; smaller homes (1,800–2,200 sqft) command $465–$485/sqft.
What's your forecast for the next 90 days?
Expect slight seasonality compression as summer listing volume peaks. Median prices should hold $780K–$795K with 2.2–2.5 months inventory. Rates may drift 6.8%–7.2% depending on Fed action. Prepared sellers with professional staging will see faster closes.
Work with Brian
If you're buying or selling in Simi Valley or tracking the market for strategy, I provide monthly updates like this one alongside detailed CMAs for individual properties. My listings average 18 days on market and 101% sale-to-list ratio—results that come from data-driven pricing and professional execution. Contact Brian or call (805) 723-2498 to discuss your property or market timing.
