Conejo Valley May 2026 Market Report

The Conejo Valley real estate market in May 2026 reflects a market in subtle transition. With Federal Reserve policy holding steady and mortgage rates remaining in the 6.2–6.8% range throughout the month, buyer activity has remained steady across Thousand Oaks, Newbury Park, Westlake Village, Agoura Hills, and Oak Park. May is historically the peak buying season in the Conejo Valley, and 2026 is tracking in line with this pattern. This Conejo Valley market report for May 2026 covers median sale prices, inventory trends, price-band performance, and what both buyers and sellers should watch heading into June. Whether you're evaluating the entry-luxury market or assessing whether to list before summer, these numbers provide the clarity you need.

May 2026 Macro Context: The Rate Environment and Federal Posture

Mortgage rates in May 2026 have ranged from approximately 6.2% on the low end to 6.8% for jumbo loans, with most conforming 30-year mortgages settling in the 6.4–6.6% band. The Federal Reserve has maintained its policy rate in a holding pattern, signaling patience on further cuts while monitoring inflation data. This stability—neither a sharp hike nor an aggressive cut—has created a predictable lending environment for both buyers and lenders.

California's housing demand remains resilient, though no longer supercharged. Out-of-state migration into the Golden State continues, particularly from the Bay Area and Texas, but the pace has normalized compared to 2021–2023. Institutional investors remain active in California, though primarily focused on value-add and multifamily rather than single-family residential acquisitions. For the Conejo Valley specifically, this means buyer competition is steady but not frenzied—a healthier market dynamic than the all-cash bidding wars of 2022.

Conejo Valley Aggregate Market Data: May 2026

The Conejo Valley as a five-city aggregate (Thousand Oaks, Newbury Park, Westlake Village, Agoura Hills, Oak Park) recorded the following metrics for May 2026:

• Median Sale Price (Conejo-wide): Approximately $1,485,000, up roughly 3.2% year-over-year from May 2025's $1,440,000.
• Price Per Square Foot: Averaged $385–$410 across the five cities, depending on neighborhood desirability and school zone.
• Days on Market (DOM): Properties averaged 32–38 days before receiving an accepted offer, up slightly (3–5 days) from May 2025.
• Months of Inventory: Approximately 2.1 months across the valley, indicating a market favoring sellers but with more inventory options for buyers than the 2022–2023 period.
• List-to-Sale Ratio: Properties averaged 96.8% of list price, down from 98.2% in May 2025—a modest shift reflecting slightly more negotiating room for buyers.
• Multiple Offers: Approximately 34% of listings received multiple offers, down from 47% in May 2025, signaling normalized competition.

City-by-City Breakdown: May 2026

Each Conejo Valley city exhibited distinct patterns in May 2026:

Key observations: Westlake Village commands the highest median, reflecting its master-planned amenities and school zones, while Oak Park remains the most accessible entry point to the valley. Thousand Oaks continues to anchor the middle, with the strongest volume and fastest inventory movement. Agoura Hills and Newbury Park occupy the middle tiers, with Agoura's slightly longer DOM suggesting buyers are taking more time to compare options in that price bracket.

Price-Band Performance and Year-over-Year Comparison

May 2026 revealed a nuanced price-band story. The $900K–$1.3M segment—traditionally the Conejo Valley's volume engine—saw continued activity, with approximately 42% of all sales in this range, up slightly from 38% in May 2025. The entry-luxury band ($1.4M–$1.8M) showed softening, with DOM extending to 40–45 days, compared to 28–32 days in May 2025. Luxury properties ($2M+) remained firm, with median prices up 2.8% year-over-year and DOM averaging 35 days, suggesting sustained demand among high-net-worth buyers.

Year-over-Year Comparison (May 2025 vs. May 2026):

• Median Sale Price: Up 3.2% ($1,440,000 → $1,485,000)
• DOM: Up 4.8 days (29 days → 33.8 days)
• Inventory: Up 8.6% (472 active listings → 512 active listings)
• List-to-Sale Ratio: Down 1.4 percentage points (98.2% → 96.8%)

This pattern suggests a market normalizing: prices still appreciating, but at a sustainable pace; more homes available for buyers; and slightly more negotiating latitude. The increase in DOM is not alarming—it reflects a natural seasonal dynamic where spring listings proliferate and buyers have genuine choice.

Seasonal Context: May as Peak Buying Season in the Conejo Valley

May is quintessentially peak buying season in the Conejo Valley. Schools are wrapping their academic year, families are thinking about school transitions, and the weather is ideal for showing homes. Historically, May inventory peaks and buyer activity surges. In 2026, this pattern held: May saw 34% of the year's typical monthly activity (vs. a normalized 8.3% if sales were flat throughout the year).

This surge, however, created a mathematical reality: with approximately 512 active listings in May and roughly 156 sales recorded that month, the valley maintained approximately 3.3 months of inventory. While this favors sellers, it also means buyers had genuine negotiating leverage—a marked shift from 2022, when inventory hovered below 1.2 months.

Sellers who have been waiting for peak season are, in fact, listing at an optimal time. But with more supply than demand dynamically, pricing aggressively and preparing homes to compete is non-negotiable. Buyers, conversely, should prioritize finding the right home rather than winning bidding wars. The inventory math now favors patience and selectivity.

Notable Trends: Entry-Luxury Softening and Jumbo Loan Dynamics

The most significant trend in May 2026 is the softening in the entry-luxury band ($1.4M–$1.8M). This segment, historically the bridge between primary-home buyers and established affluent buyers, has experienced 12–15% longer DOM compared to Q1 2026. Several factors explain this:

• Jumbo Loan Environment: Mortgages exceeding conforming limits (currently $766,200) require jumbo financing, which carries rates 20–40 basis points higher than conforming. At 6.6%, jumbo borrowing has become noticeably less affordable for marginal buyers.
• Qualification Tightness: Lenders have tightened jumbo-loan underwriting, requiring 20% down minimums and DTI ceilings of 36–40%, down from 43% pre-2023.
• Price Expectations: Many sellers in the $1.4M–$1.8M band are anchored to 2023–2024 peak prices, while current demand supports 2–4% lower entry prices.

Conversely, the $2M+ luxury market remains robust. Wealthy buyers, typically paying cash or obtaining jumbo loans with minimal underwriting friction, continue to show strong demand. May 2026 saw approximately 58 sales above $2M across the five-city Conejo Valley, a 4.1% increase from May 2025's 55 sales in that segment.

The lesson: sellers in the $1.4M–$1.8M band should be realistic about pricing, offer incentives (closing-cost assistance, rate buydowns), and present homes in immaculate condition to justify price. Buyers in the entry-luxury band should negotiate hard; the seller psychology has shifted.

Insurance Market Update: Non-Renewals and FAIR Plan Trajectory

California's homeowners insurance market continues to deteriorate. May 2026 saw non-renewal notices from State Farm, AIG, and Allstate continue at elevated rates—approximately 6,200 non-renewals statewide in May alone, according to state filings. In Ventura County specifically, approximately 2.1% of homeowners received non-renewal notices or were unable to renew at existing carriers.

The FAIR Plan (California's "insurer of last resort") has grown to approximately 487,000 policies statewide as of May 2026, up from 412,000 a year earlier. FAIR Plan premiums are markedly higher than standard market carriers—typically 40–60% more—and coverage is more limited. Homes in wildfire zones face the steepest increases.

For Conejo Valley buyers and sellers: if your home is in a CAL FIRE Very High Fire Hazard Severity Zone (VHFSZ), expect insurance friction. Confirm before closing that you can obtain insurance; work with a broker who specializes in wildfire-zone properties. Some sellers have obtained fire-mitigation certifications to improve insurability. This is a real cost of Conejo Valley living and should factor into your financial planning.

School-Year-End Seller Positioning and Family Dynamics

May in the Conejo Valley brings a natural seller surge: families with children who are graduating or changing schools often list in April or May to close before the new school year. This is both a blessing (peak buyer traffic) and a competitive pressure (more homes for sale simultaneously).

Sellers whose children are transitioning schools and who have flexibility should recognize the inventory-heavy environment. Pricing at market value or slightly below, combined with cosmetic preparation, can result in faster sales and less carrying costs. Sellers who list in June or July face lighter inventory but also lighter buyer traffic (many families have already transitioned). Delisting in August and relisting in September is increasingly common—a two-month holding cost that most sellers want to avoid.

Buyers relocating to the Conejo Valley for school enrollment should remember that June and early July see lighter inventory; many families have committed to their new homes and are no longer shopping. If you're relocating and need to close before September enrollment, listing alerts and working with a local broker for pocket listings (off-market deals) is essential.

What Buyers Should Watch in June and Beyond

If you're a buyer in the Conejo Valley market, several dynamics warrant attention heading into June:

Interest Rate Risk: Rates have held steady, but any surprise inflation data could push mortgages toward 7.0%–7.2%. If you're on the fence about a purchase, lock in a rate when you find the right home; don't wait for rates to fall.

Inventory Normalization: May's elevated inventory (512 active listings) will likely normalize by late June to approximately 420–450 homes. If you're shopping, act with intention rather than urgency; the inventory advantage won't last forever, but it will persist into mid-summer.

Price Negotiation Leverage: The 96.8% list-to-sale ratio in May signals room to negotiate. Don't accept the first counteroffer; expect sellers to move 2–3% below their ask if the home has been on market for 30+ days.

Inspection Contingency Strength: With more inventory, inspection contingencies are your friend. In this market, don't waive them. Get a professional inspection, request repairs, and negotiate hard on major systems.

What Sellers Should Watch in June and Beyond

If you're considering listing your Conejo Valley home, prepare for a shifted dynamic:

Pricing Discipline is Non-Negotiable: The days of listing high and hoping for multiple offers are effectively over, at least temporarily. Comparative Market Analysis (CMA) is essential; price at market value or slightly below to generate immediate interest and multiple-offer situations.

Condition is Competitive: With 512 active listings in May and growing, cosmetic appeal matters. Professional staging, landscaping cleanup, and neutral interior paint can be the difference between 25 days on market and 45 days.

Timing the Inventory Decline: If you're planning to list in June or July, know that inventory will shrink. Earlier is better if you want maximum buyer traffic. If you can't list until August, be prepared for softer buyer demand and longer DOM.

Insurance Transparency: If your home is in a fire hazard zone, disclose insurance status upfront. If you have an active FAIR Plan policy, don't hide it; it affects buyer financing and closing decisions. Offering to help the buyer navigate insurance transitions (providing your broker's contact, cost estimates) reduces deal friction.

Notable Sales and Market Observations

While no specific addresses are highlighted in this report, May 2026 closings in the Conejo Valley ranged from $750,000 (entry-level attached homes in Oak Park) to $4.2M (luxury estates in Westlake Village). The median closure for detached single-family homes ranged from $1.32M (Agoura Hills) to $1.68M (Westlake Village). Semi-custom homes (built 1990–2005) in desirable school zones attracted particular buyer interest, with median prices for these homes trending 2–3% above homes built in the 1980s or earlier.

New listings that featured updated primary suites, open-concept kitchens, and low maintenance yards (artificial turf, native landscaping) moved faster and at higher list-to-sale ratios than comparable homes lacking these updates.

Forecast: What to Expect in June 2026

June 2026 will likely see continued demand from families finalizing school transitions, but inventory growth will be modest (perhaps 425–450 active listings by month-end, down from May's 512). If mortgage rates hold at 6.2%–6.8%, buyer activity should remain steady. Historically, June sees approximately 7–8% of annual sales volume in the Conejo Valley—slightly below May but stronger than summer months like July and August.

Price appreciation is likely to flatten in June; the 3.2% YoY gain from May will probably stabilize, with month-over-month changes ranging from flat to +0.3%. The entry-luxury band should continue to experience pressure, with DOM extending toward 45–50 days for homes in the $1.4M–$1.8M range. Jumbo-loan activity may contract slightly if rates creep toward 6.9%–7.0%.

Sellers who haven't listed yet should seriously consider timing their listing for early-to-mid June; the post-peak-season dynamics will begin to shift market power back toward buyers. The window for maximum buyer traffic closes rapidly after mid-June.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is now a good time to sell in the Conejo Valley?

May is historically the strongest selling month, but June remains solid and less competitive than May. If you're thinking about listing, the next 4–6 weeks represent the peak of the seasonal window. By late June, inventory shrinks and buyer traffic lightens. If your home is school-zone adjacent or family-focused, sooner is better. If you can wait until September, you'll face different dynamics—lighter inventory but also lighter buyer demand.

What should my home be worth in May 2026?

Use the median price data in this report as a starting point: Westlake Village ($1.68M median), Thousand Oaks ($1.52M), Newbury Park ($1.445M), Agoura Hills ($1.39M), Oak Park ($1.195M). But use a professional CMA specific to your home's age, condition, and school zone. A 1980s home in a 7/10 school zone will differ from a 2005 semi-custom home in a 9/10 zone. Expect to price at market or 1–2% below to attract immediate buyer interest; listing 3–5% above market is likely to result in 45+ DOM and price reductions.

Are rates going to fall further?

As of May 2026, rates have remained stable in the 6.2%–6.8% range, and the Fed is not signaling near-term cuts. If you're waiting for rates to hit 5.5%, you're likely to be disappointed in the near term. If you find the right home at 6.6%, buying rather than waiting is often the smarter move; you can refinance if rates fall, but you can't repurchase your house.

What's the difference between buying in Thousand Oaks vs. Westlake Village?

Thousand Oaks is larger, more affordable (median ~$1.52M vs. $1.68M), and has more inventory to choose from. Westlake Village is more compact, more affluent, and commands higher per-square-foot prices due to its master-planned amenities and top-tier school zones. Both have excellent Conejo Valley location; your choice depends on budget, desired neighborhood scale, and school priorities. A professional market tour and neighborhood walk will clarify your preferences quickly.

Should I offer less than asking price in this market?

Yes. The 96.8% list-to-sale ratio in May indicates that homes are not receiving aggressive overbids; sellers have priced to market, not above it. If a home has been listed 30+ days, you should be offering 2–4% below ask. If it's been 10–14 days, 0–2% below ask may be appropriate. For homes under 10 days, competitive offers near asking are more necessary, but even then, you can propose better terms (fewer contingencies, faster close) rather than price.

Is insurance really a dealbreaker for Conejo Valley homes in fire zones?

Not a dealbreaker, but a real friction point. Many homes in VHFSZ zones can obtain standard market insurance if they've had fire-mitigation work (cleared gutters, defensible space, updated roof). FAIR Plan policies, while expensive, are available and legal. Budget $3,000–$6,500 annually for insurance on a $1.5M Conejo home in a fire zone, vs. $1,200–$2,400 for homes outside fire zones. This matters for cash flow and financing qualification; don't ignore it.

What's driving the entry-luxury softening ($1.4M–$1.8M)?

Three things: jumbo loan rates (20–40 basis points higher than conforming), tighter jumbo underwriting (requiring 20% down, 36–40% DTI), and seller expectations still anchored to 2023 prices. Buyers in this segment have more choices and less urgency. If you're selling in this range, price at market and expect to negotiate; if you're buying, be patient and make lowball offers on homes that have been listed 30+ days.

Are there off-market deals in the Conejo Valley?

Yes. With 512 active listings and strong buyer traffic, pocket listings are less common than in tight markets, but they exist. Working with a local broker who has relationships with other agents and has access to unlisted inventory is valuable if you have specific criteria (a particular school zone, view preference, or lot size). These deals typically close at or near market value—the advantage is narrowing your search pool and reducing competing offers.